中英對照讀新聞》Scientists cast doubt on famous US groundhog’s weather forecasts 科學家質疑美國著名土撥鼠預測天氣的準確性

賓州小鎮彭格蘇塔維尼的土撥鼠「菲爾」，今年2月2日依傳統報春。（法新社）

◎管淑平

Scientists have cast doubt on the reliability of America’s most celebrated rodent forecaster － whose apparent knack of predicting how long winter will last forms a hallowed tradition in the United States.

科學家對美國最有名的「天氣預報鼠」的可靠性提出質疑；這隻土撥鼠看似掌握到預測冬季還會持續多久的訣竅，成為美國一項受到尊崇的傳統活動。

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Punxsutawney Phil, made famous by the 1993 film "Groundhog Day," attracts thousands of onlookers every February 2 to the Pennsylvania town that he takes his name from.

因1993年電影《今天暫時停止》而出名的土撥鼠「彭格蘇塔維尼菲爾」，每年2月2日都會吸引數千人，到賓州牠名字由來的同名小鎮，現場觀賞牠報春。

But professional forecasters have warned that Phil’s prediction is likely to be way off the mark.

然而，專業氣象預報員警告，菲爾的預測很可能非常不準。

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has concluded that only 35 percent of Phil’s forecasts have proved to be accurate － placing him at a lowly 17th compared to other rodent forecasters.

美國國家海洋暨大氣總署評估認定，菲爾的預測準確率僅35％，和其他天氣預報鼠相比，準確度排名不高，只排第17名。

Staten Island Chuck, a New York-based groundhog, tops the rankings with an impressive 85 percent accuracy rate on his forecasts.

紐約土撥鼠「史塔登島查克」的預測，則以驚人的85％準確率名列榜首。

新聞辭典

reliability：名詞，可靠性，可信度。例句：The reliability of weather forecasts has improved with modern technology.（天氣預報可靠性已因現代科技而提高。）

accurate：形容詞，準確的，精確的。例句：The map is accurate and easy to read.（這張地圖精確且易於閱讀。）

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